It has been quite a long time since I blogged. Much has happened since: found some wonderful things, encountered bad stuff, made bad & good trading and investing decisions, etc.
Talking about investing, I realise that the best method for me moving forward is to adopt an 'automated' system where my decision is based on pre-set criteria rather than intuition and news. This is because after much experience in the market, I realise that I'm an impatient person, which is an archilles heel if you were to trade or invest in the market.
Furthermore after attaining certificates and taking certain modules of the following:
1. CFA Level 1
2. CMT Level 1
3. Behavioral Finance
4. Portfolio Management
5. Corporate Reporting and Financial Analysis
I feel that the best method for me moving forward is to adopt 'Value Averaging' system, popularized by Michale Eldeson (can't remember the exact spelling) integrated with both Portfolio Management (minimizing variance and attaining corresponding weights for ETFs) and simple technical analysis (involving moving averages and simple trends). Since I'm able to derive an automated system and I forsee myself attained a relatively successful track record, my interests in pursuing a career in finance/ investing has waned tremendously. Long gone have been the days where I dreamt of becoming the next warren buffett after I have gone through the gruelling module of Corp. Reporting & Financial Analysis where I learnt and created full residual income models, discounted cashflow models, relative valuation models and adjustements to line items to account for modes of consolidation and operating leases. After applying what I have learnt, I realise much of these are very much dependent on parameters which again depends on your judgment. However, after immersing myself in the field of behavioral finance through reading countless academic papers, I found out that judgment could kill. I began to question whether I could actually beat the market by picking stocks. True, you could pick an undervalued stock! But the question is, could the stock ever recover to its fair value.
On the contrary, my interests in economics & social phenomenon have picked up tremendously. I began reading voraciously on economist articles; thinking hard about some of the analytical tools they use ( for eg. regression models, advanced stats analysis). I believe that my new habit is partly fuelled by my internship in Singapore's trade development board where I did intensive research and wrote a paper on a social phenomenon. After finishing my gruelling stint, even though I felt burnt out (studying for CFA level 1 plays a part), I know that I have done something that could be beneficial to policy plans which in turn could benefit Singapore's society.
At this point of time, I realised if I were to venture into this area for my career, I need to further improved my statistical skills. Even though I have basic knowledge in econometrics and market research statistics ( for eg cluster analysis, partworth utility,bla bla bla), I feel that it's still insufficient.Hence, I decide to enroll myself in economics forecasting (dealing with more time series models) and applied regression models in my last semester of my university life.
But when all is said and done, the priority for me right now is to find a job that I would love. It could be in the area of consultancy, policy planning, statistics, economics or research. Jobs seem to be scare in this competitive society where everyone seems to be so brilliant, especially in the 'Dragon Year'. With the supply of graduates to skyrocket and demand of graduates (from company view) to be stagnant, will we witness a fall in wages in the private sector?
It might be long time till I write my next bog post. However, I hope by then I would achieve some form of success. It could be in monetary terms, family, etc.
Bye Bye! (to myself or any random guy who read this post)
