I've entered into a new phase of life. The first 2 weeks into working life has been a steep learning curve. Being in the civil service has both its merits and demerits. Merits would include stability and emphasis on training (lotsa it!) while demerits include slower progression in terms of ranks, wages and lots of red tapes. Being in the economist profession no doubt leans to my personality, however the working environment is filled with people who are smarter than you. I'm not sure if this should be viewed as a positive or negative point. With regards to emphasis on training, I think civil service place a higher emphasis than most companies.In fact, I'm excited to go for courses that upgrade my current set of technical skills. Reading stuff from various sources, I think it's essential to develop both a career and financial plan.Here it goes.. Career Plan 1. Aim to get into ES before head of department leaves -Be Proactive -Write x papers(to be determined) -Be proficient in your portfolio5k -Learn both technical and soft skills: VBA, Microsoft access (In case you want to jump) 2. Get a masters in either Stats, Economics or MPA Financial Plan 1. Pay up your debt -Friend: June,July -Aunt: August, September -Mum: October, November, December *3 (Including bonuses) 2.Start with a clean slate -Invest half of income: Value average ETFs -Save half of income for marriage Effectivness Plan (Refer to summary of 7 habits) 1. Be proactive 2. Begin with end in mind 3. Put first things first 4. Think win/win 5. Seek first to understand, then to be understood 6. Synergize 7. Sharpen the saw Personal Plan 1. Visit maid 2. Get married in 4 years

After applying to around 60+ jobs, I finally found a job in the civil service as an economist. I can say this is kind of unexpected and it feels real good because I'm able to find a job that leans towards my strength, personality and interest. The interview process was really tedious and rigorous which kind of affected my grades in a way. But I got to say that this is a good trade off given that my priority was to find a job. However, I've got to give myself a final push towards the finishing line since my remuneration is dependent on my honours which is potentially $3000/ year- a large sum if I were to stay in the civil service for many years coupled with the compounded effect.

Another thing that I am proud of is to finish a thesis with the same topic from my internship. It's something that I always wanted to do in an academic way, as opposed to the management consultancy way that I employed in my internship paper. Need to give myself a pat on my back given that my teammate freeloaded on me. Not that I care since this is the most effective way in learning things.

It's time to say good bye.When I revisit my blog next time, I hope to obtain my desired class of honours and enjoy my job at the same time.

It has been quite a long time since I blogged. Much has happened since: found some wonderful things, encountered bad stuff, made bad & good trading and investing decisions, etc.

Talking about investing, I realise that the best method for me moving forward is to adopt an 'automated' system where my decision is based on pre-set criteria rather than intuition and news. This is because after much experience in the market, I realise that I'm an impatient person, which is an archilles heel if you were to trade or invest in the market.

Furthermore after attaining certificates and taking certain modules of the following:

1. CFA Level 1
2. CMT Level 1
3. Behavioral Finance
4. Portfolio Management
5. Corporate Reporting and Financial Analysis

I feel that the best method for me moving forward is to adopt 'Value Averaging' system, popularized by Michale Eldeson (can't remember the exact spelling) integrated with both Portfolio Management (minimizing variance and attaining corresponding weights for ETFs) and simple technical analysis (involving moving averages and simple trends). Since I'm able to derive an automated system and I forsee myself attained a relatively successful track record, my interests in pursuing a career in finance/ investing has waned tremendously. Long gone have been the days where I dreamt of becoming the next warren buffett after I have gone through the gruelling module of Corp. Reporting & Financial Analysis where I learnt and created full residual income models, discounted cashflow models, relative valuation models and adjustements to line items to account for modes of consolidation and operating leases. After applying what I have learnt, I realise much of these are very much dependent on parameters which again depends on your judgment. However, after immersing myself in the field of behavioral finance through reading countless academic papers, I found out that judgment could kill. I began to question whether I could actually beat the market by picking stocks. True, you could pick an undervalued stock! But the question is, could the stock ever recover to its fair value.

On the contrary, my interests in economics & social phenomenon have picked up tremendously. I began reading voraciously on economist articles; thinking hard about some of the analytical tools they use ( for eg. regression models, advanced stats analysis). I believe that my new habit is partly fuelled by my internship in Singapore's trade development board where I did intensive research and wrote a paper on a social phenomenon. After finishing my gruelling stint, even though I felt burnt out (studying for CFA level 1 plays a part), I know that I have done something that could be beneficial to policy plans which in turn could benefit Singapore's society.

At this point of time, I realised if I were to venture into this area for my career, I need to further improved my statistical skills. Even though I have basic knowledge in econometrics and market research statistics ( for eg cluster analysis, partworth utility,bla bla bla), I feel that it's still insufficient.Hence, I decide to enroll myself in economics forecasting (dealing with more time series models) and applied regression models in my last semester of my university life.

But when all is said and done, the priority for me right now is to find a job that I would love. It could be in the area of consultancy, policy planning, statistics, economics or research. Jobs seem to be scare in this competitive society where everyone seems to be so brilliant, especially in the 'Dragon Year'. With the supply of graduates to skyrocket and demand of graduates (from company view) to be stagnant, will we witness a fall in wages in the private sector? 

It might be long time till I write my next bog post. However, I hope by then I would achieve some form of success. It could be in monetary terms, family, etc.

Bye Bye! (to myself or any random guy who read this post)

Value Averaging

I just encountered this method which I might be using for the rest of my life. This method produces the best internal rate of returns as compared to more conventional methods such as dollar cost averaging.

However, I might tweak the strategy a bit. For instance, when the stock prices are below the 250 MA, I would increase my contribution rate from $500 to $600.

On a side note, I might want to be a teacher rather than going to the financial sector. I'm really confused now and I do hope that someone can shed some light on this matter.

Jim Roger's analysis of UN's 'aid'

Does aid help Africa at all?

We do know that stuff such as clothes are being sent to the continent. But, does it really help them at all?

Jim rogers mentioned that these shirt that are meant to be aid are being sold to the people in Africa instead. And, these will bring about few problems. One of them is, the clothes producers are not able to compete with these 'new sources/supply' which are being sold at a cheaper price.

The developed countries might have already understood this situation, but they might still choose to do nothing at all, since cutting this source of 'aid' would be deemed as a move that is not 'humane'. Also, the alternative solution of purchasing these clothes from the African producers would result in intense competition with its own manufacturers.(which seems to be a bad thing for them even though competition is often good for an industry to progress) and this is not viable to them.

All in all, even though the better solution is to import the clothes from Africa, the developed nations are not wiling to adopt this stand since it might 'hurt' its people instead.

Pondering

Many people who have achieved financial independence keep mentioning about 'Pipes'. Right now, I don't really have a solid pipe yet. I keep harping on reaching the $100k goal before I graduate, but I do feel that this goal is getting further and further away from me. How do I maximize my time. Time=money! Right now, I'm often free at nite. I do feel that I should really convert the precious commodity of time into money! How can I do it. Can anyone enlighten me? By trading FOREX? How? People are not willing to teach you for free man.

1.) Work on MON, WED and FRI. 15 x 8= $120 ($480/ month)+ tuition($400) or $600++ instead of $480. $880 or $1000

I want to get rich!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Re-assessing my goals

1. Do 1 major event per semester-most probably I will doing one of the social enterprise projects this semester.)
2. Increase cash flow-find 1 more tuition during the weekend
3. Increased EQ, broaden social network
4. Broaden my knowledge-look up to charlie munger
5. Do not be stagnant
6. Step out of my comfort zone
7. Improve on public speaking skills
8. Increasing net worth to $30,000.(I'm really lagging behind!!!!!!!So long and it's still $25,000. It's really quite hard to increase my net worth while I'm still in school. But, nothing can stop me man.)

Re-assessing my goals

Regarding my earlier post, I stated that obtaining a good GPA is not important. However, I think I have changed my mind. Why? Because a good GPA looks good! And since I am paying so much for my school fees, why should I give up a golden opportunity to make full use of it.

1. Brush up on FA
2. Increase independence
3. Increase knowledge on philospophy
4. Prep for case study competition
5. Apologise to brother( find correct timing)

OMG

I think I have found the holy grail in my life man. Trading sti etf. How cool can it be? Generate $800 per month! I'm on my way to financial freedom. The key now is to increase my cash flow and I think I should be on my way there.

Contrarian

How do you really succeed in life?

I have heard from numerous people who are really really successful and they said the only way is to be a contrarian- one who does not follow conventional wisdom; one who does not tread the same path that many before him has walked; one who is daring enough to venture out into the uncharted waters on his own; one who deeply believes himself and one who is not affected by 'noises'.

Parabolic SAR FTW

Omg! This indicator is so damn bloody accurate! Freak OMG, I'm fainting. This could be one of the biggest discoveries in my life

Cash flow

How do I increase my cash flow whilst being an undergraduate. This represents one of the conundrums that I am facing now. POKER, STOCKS, FOREX, TUITION, GRANTS, COMPETITIONS, BUSINESS. Are these really my strengths?! What are my strengths? I have always wanted to achieve financial freedom but I am still very clueless in how to achieve it. Furthermore, I am also clueless in what I really want to achieve in life? Studies or wealth? I am in a hurry now to achieve my dream.

FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE

I have set an ultimate goal for myself. My net worth must reach 100k by the time I graduate. It's a must. I have got ample time now and I even rank it above getting cum laude for my degree. It is imperative for me to achieve it. 100k, here I come!

Lee Kuan Yew's article in Straits times

I would like to refer to the article written by our minister mentor in Straits Times.
In the article, he mentioned about the need for the Chinese to change their thrifty habits. In their culture, they are encouraged to save their money for 'rainy days'. Why do I make this claim? In the Chinese history, during times of disasters, the civilians often find themselves being alienated by the government for it is extremely difficult to obtain financial backing from the central government. Ergo, it is imperative for the people to stash away some of their money, and not spend all their money on material needs instead. However, change they must, since the global economy depends substantially on the rising dragon to drag the world out of the economic slump. If the world economy were to start functioning again, China would certainly serve as one of the most important catalysts.

But, when all is said and done, even though China might be one of the important players for the decoupling effect, America must also do their part for they are still biggest consumer on the earth judging by GDP alone.

Immanuel Kant VS Utiliarianism

Today, I'm going to express my view on these 2 terms again. Just now, I chanced upon an intriguing article in my AS textbook- A terrorist plants an atomic bomb in a place that is unknown to anyone. And this bomb is going to explode in a few days' time.In addition, this explosion would most certainly claim the lives of millions of people.
After days of intensive search for the terrorist, he is finally caught. One worrying thing to note- notwithstanding pleading with him repeatedly to disclose the whereabouts of the bomb, he simply refused to bulge on his position.

My question to you is, will you approve the use of torture which could potentially salvage the lives of millions of people? On the one hand, torturing has always been perceived as an act that is distasteful and inhumane, but on the other hand, it could be use in this case to save millions of lives. I would like to propose to you on the tools for managing this problem- analysis by implementing both categorical imperative and utilitarianism concepts.

Ethics of technology

I find this area of ethics particularly interesting. In fact, I published this on my TWC forum.

To first determine whether our ethics have been corroded by technology, it is important to first define the scope of ethics. Generally, there are two approaches towards moral issues- utilitarianism and categorical imperative. I will further elaborate these two points with regards to certain technological issues in the later part of my post.

Utilitarianism is the notion that the right action is understood entirely in terms of the consequences involved. Thus, this means that moral worth of an action is determined solely by its contribution to overall utility of the society.

On the other hand, categorical imperative implies that the action is only ‘right’ when it is morally sound. This can be illustrated from the quote by Immanuel Kant, the forefather of the concept ‘categorical imperative’, ‘Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law.’ This concept tends to rely more on our moral intuitions (feelings) rather than our rational powers. Although ‘categorical imperative’ relies on intuitions, there are certain yardsticks that one could use to gauge whether the action is right such as religion and the legal system. This point to the fact that the ‘consequentialism’ concept embraced by the utilitarians would be disregarded since a follower of Kant would prefer to dwell more on the moral issue of an action rather than what the action will bring to a society.

Let me use these two very different school of thoughts and apply it to an ethical dilemma concerning technology- A man is very sick and he needs to have a liver transplant within two months or he will die. His situation is complicated by the fact that he has a very rare blood type and it is extremely hard to find a suitable donor. Time is running out and he desperately needs a liver transplant if he wants to live beyond two months! One day, he stumbles upon the fact that there is a stem cell research scientist who is able to harness a liver that would be compatible with any blood type. However, there is one issue here – his religion forbids anything to do with stem cell research. This brings me to the point on whether one should act base on utilitarianism or categorical imperative? If the man were to base his action on the former, he would accept the liver. On the other hand, if the man accepts the latter, he would reject the liver that could ultimately save his life.

Let me apply these two concepts to the hypothetical situation where genetic engineering has progressed so far that it is possible to ‘design’ a baby. Designing a baby in this context means that one can determine the fate of the baby by deciding the attributes such as mathematical aptitude and musical ability. If the government were to take a stand on this issue, what will their choice be?

A government that adopts the utilitarian approach would probably pass the bill to make it legal because it would definitely bring net benefit to the nation. Why do I say so? This would definitely raise the standard of living of the nation, not only economically but also in the social cultural aspect. For instance, the people would be better off and they would probably appreciate arts more.

On the one hand, a utilitarian government would welcome this idea, but on the other hand, a government that is leaning towards Kant’s ideology would probably reject it. They might argue based on religious reason as they feel that this whole idea is morally unsound and it is preposterous to play ‘god’ for this instance.

In short, it is very hard to determine whether one’s action is right or wrong, especially in an area such as technology that is filled with countless controversies. If one were to base all their actions on any ideology, he would commit ‘man with the hammer’ syndrome where ever problem will appear to be a nail. This analogy means that one would follow a system blindly without considering the alternatives and this might lead to the situation where the best solution is overlooked. Hence, I propose that in the areas of the ethics of technology, everything should be looked upon in a case by case basis, using both the utilitarianism and categorical imperative approaches.

Analytical skills

This is one of the situations that my AS professor has given me. The story goes like this- You are currently a SMU student( which I am currently) and you are very interested in writing mystery novels. You are so interested that your dream is to be a mystery novel writer. You have sent drafts after drafts of your work to many publication houses but all you got are rejections, so you feel that this might be the end of your dream of showing the world of your work.

During one faithful day, one of the publishers that rejected your works called and told you that they are willing to accept your work. However, there is one condition- your work will be published under someone else's name. You asked why, and the publisher said that one of their authors have run out of ideas and the author's bank( unpublished finished works) can only last for five more years. They feel that your works are very similar to the best selling author, so similar that it seems like the works are written by identical twins. Hence, they feel that it is a good idea to publish your works under his name as it is almost similar to a franchising strategy where one can use the 'brand' to market their work. Also, you will receive $500,000 for your first work and 50% of the subsequent proceeds from the books that you are penning in the future. This is a very attractive deal considering your current status as a SMU student. However, there is one dangerous cache- if you were to publish any of your mystery novel works under your own name someday, you will be killed by assassins.

The question is- will you accept or reject the deal?

Aung San Suu Kyi

I have recently come across an article regarding Myamar. I was deeply disturbed when I read that Aung San Suu Kyi, one of the leaders of the opposition party is kept under house arrest by the Burma's government in Burma, known as Myanmar today. How could one be kept under house arrest in the present world just because of conflicting ideologies? This is certainly one of the most disgusting things that I have ever heard of in my life. Also, I feel deeply ashamed to find myself of not knowing this all my life. If there is only one thing that is unjustified in the world, this could be the one!

LIFE

I think I shoould try to enjoy every moment of my life. Just relax and take it easy!

OIL!!!

Oil consumption has fallen by less than 10%. However, the price of oil has fallen off the cliff from US$150 to US$38. This represents a fall of around 70%. This tremendous fall is attributed to the fact that hedge funds pump in a lot of money to affect the prices.

However, this might also happen because of the fact that supply curve of oil is very price inelastic where a small fall in demand will result in a very huge fall in the price of oil.